Estimating the future burden of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis in India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa: a mathematical modelling study
Multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are emerging worldwide. The Green Light Committee initiative supported programmatic management of drug-resistant tuberculosis in 90 countries. We used estimates from the Preserving Effective TB Treatment Study to predict MDR and XDR tuberculosis trends in four countries with a high burden of MDR tuberculosis: India, the Philippines, Russia, and South Africa.
The article by Nicolas Menzies and colleagues (November, 2016), based on a modelling approach, concludes that most tuberculosis control interventions in South Africa, China, and India are highly cost-effective. In this regard, I have a different viewpoint.
Could Circumcision of HIV-Positive Males Benefit Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Programs in Africa? Mathematical Modeling Analysis in Zambia
The epidemiological and programmatic implications of inclusivity of HIV-positive males in voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs are uncertain. We modeled these implications using Zambia as an illustrative example.
Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention: New Mathematical Models for Strategic Demand Creation Prioritizing Subpopulations by Age and Geography
Over 11 million voluntary medical male circumcisions (VMMC) have been performed of the projected 20.3 million needed to reach 80% adult male circumcision prevalence in priority sub-Saharan African countries. Striking numbers of adolescent males, outside the 15-49-year-old age target, have been accessing VMMC services. What are the implications of overall progress in scale-up to date?
The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model
Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates.
Why the proportion of transmission during early-stage HIV infection does not predict the long-term impact of treatment on HIV incidence
Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the infectiousness of HIV-infected persons, but only after testing, linkage to care, and successful viral suppression. Thus, a large proportion of HIV transmission during a period of high infectiousness in the first few months after infection (“early transmission”) is perceived as a threat to the impact of HIV “treatment-as-prevention” strategies. We created a mathematical model of a heterosexual HIV epidemic to investigate how the proportion of early transmission affects the impact of ART on reducing HIV incidence.
Modeling the Implementation of Universal Coverage for HIV Treatment as Prevention and its Impact on the HIV Epidemic
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) recently updated its global targets for antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for HIV-positive persons under which 90 % of HIV-positive people are tested, 90 % of those are on ART, and 90 % of those achieve viral suppression. Treatment policy is moving toward treating all HIV-infected persons regardless of CD4 cell count—otherwise known as treatment as prevention—in order to realize the full therapeutic and preventive benefits of ART.