The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model

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Annick Bórquez, Anne Cori, Erica L. Pufall, Jingo Kasule, Emma Slaymaker, Alison Price, Jocelyn Elmes, Basia Zaba, Amelia C. Crampin, Joseph Kagaayi, Tom Lutalo, Mark Urassa, Simon Gregson, Timothy B. Hallett

Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates.

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